These days if you feel like you’re living in some kind of dystopian novel, you’re not alone. The events of 2020 have cost a lot of lives. They have thrown many things into uncertainty for a lot of people too. And, it doesn’t look like it’ll be over anytime soon.
But one computer model at MIT actually predicted the state of the world right now with chilling accuracy, way back in 1970. (1)
In vintage news footage released in 2018 by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC), we are reminded of the once fantasy, now very real, computer prediction. We can see in black and white, quite literally, how predictable it was that we would end up overrun with trash and pollution. As the presenter traces the upward and downward curves in thick black marker, we can see exactly what would happen if we were to do nothing but continue life as normal. We were offered a glimpse into predictions of what we would be experiencing now, and it was spot on. You can check out the video here:
The World3 Computer Model
It all started out as a mathematical model that was developed by engineering students at MIT. This model was based on the work of Jay Wright Forrester, a pioneer of computer modeling. The engineering students’ work was commissioned by a group called Club of Rome. They wanted to predict what the future of worldwide growth looked like, in relation to the finite resources we have here on Earth. (1)
The research resulted in a book known as The Limits To Growth. It’s the best-selling environmental book of all time. To say this book does not serve up a rosy view of things is an understatement. The research took into account five total factors that would likely have the most impact on growth here on Earth. They were: population increase, agricultural production, non-renewable resource depletion, industrial output, and pollution generation.
The researchers employed a model similar to the first models that Forrester originally worked with, calling it World3, a nod to Forrester’s World1 model. World1 looked at the world as one market… one stage, one single society. The World3 research calculated that if we continue on a “business as usual” trajectory, our society will collapse at some point this century. (1)
What The Future Holds
What’s really interesting (or disturbing), is that “climate change” wasn’t a topic of discussion yet in the 70s. Our effect on the environment had not begun to settle on our collective consciousness yet. But the numbers were already there. Our behavior had such predictable outcomes that a computer had no trouble telling us what the state of things would be in the year 2020. The model shows how quality of life suffers when the population and our level of pollution grows, coupled with shrinking natural resources.
As you might expect, when The Limits to Growth was released it was met with a good bit of resistance. It was a best-seller and brought a certain awareness that was desperately needed. But back in the day The New York Times had harsh words for it. “The Limits to Growth in our view, is an empty and misleading work. Its imposing apparatus of computer technology and systems jargon … takes arbitrary assumptions, shakes them up and comes out with arbitrary conclusions that have the ring of science.” (1)
Well, in the year 2020, we are exactly where that model predicted we would be. Should we now start expecting the beginning stages of societal collapse? The model says yes.
