If you’ve been worried about the lack of supplies on your grocery store shelves, it may get worse before it gets better. In response to fears about food shortages in the era of coronavirus, we have all seen individuals hoarding food. Now, countries are starting to as well.
Where’s The Wheat?
You may know Kazakhstan as the country of origin of Sacha Baron Cohen’s Borat–but it’s also one of the biggest suppliers of wheat flour. In response to COVID-19, the country has stopped exporting this flour, as well as their supplies of sugar, potatoes, buckwheat, onions, and carrots. Serbia has also stopped exports as well. While these might seem like small countries–and small concerns–it’s just the start. Russia is the world’s biggest wheat exporter–and they are re-evaluating their export policies every week, according to officials. Even places that are not restricting shipments are running into delays, due to problems with shipping supply lines. Two-thirds of the apple juice in the United States is produced by China–and there are delays in ports there. (1, 2)
The Vicious Cycle
A member of London think tank Chatham House, Tim Benton, warns that hoarding by individuals affects countries and vice versa. “If you’re panic buying on the market for next year’s harvest, then prices will go up, and as prices go up, policymakers will panic more,” he explains. In 2010, Russia’s wheat was damaged by extreme heat. This caused a ripple effect which led to the United Nations reporting record highs in global food prices by February 2011. So, when major players in the food market refuse to share, it has an immediate–and severe–impact on everyone else. (1)
Changes In Demand
Dave Howorth is the executive director of Scala Consulting, which specializes in supply chains. He says part of the reason that it may seem like there’s not enough food is because of a change in American eating habits. “It’s a fundamental change. You’ve seen a significant switch in volumes, which has been overlaid with panic buying,” he says. The switch he’s talking about is the shift from eating out at restaurants to preparing food at home. As bars, coffee shops, and sit-down restaurants close their doors, people aren’t turning to delivery services at an equal rate–and that, in addition to hoarding, has led to a run on groceries. (2)
Local Production
Nestlé is a brand that everyone is familiar with–but if you think of them in connection with chocolate only, think again. They’ve got their fingers in almost every part of the food production pie–and they’re not too worried. While Europe will face delays in the food supply from them, because of border closures, the United States will not be in the same boat. Their ingredients are primarily from sources within the US. General Mills is also optimistic about the food supply in the United States, saying that “food continues to flow, we continue to make it. Our retailers continue to stock as quickly as they can. And that all is actually working pretty well.” (3)
Could There Be Problems In The United States?
The answer is yes–but maybe not in the way you may think. The United States Department of Agriculture says that they are not aware of any cases of the coronavirus being transmitted through food. But producing that food may be a problem. The president of the Farm Bureau, Zippy Duvall, says “there’s no crisis in the food supply right now. Our concern is what’s going to come six months later.” So, what’s coming six months later? Tyson Foods Inc., who produces 20% of America’s chicken, beef, and pork, says “if a significant percentage of our workforce is unable to work, including because of illness or travel or government restrictions in connection with pandemics or disease outbreaks, our operations may be negatively impacted.”
If that statement doesn’t alarm you, it should–it’s a reality. The United States has decided to suspend visas from Mexico, which will drastically decrease the number of laborers. Duvall believes that without these immigrant workers, farms will simply not have enough staff to run operations as normal. He hopes that President Donald Trump will categorize farm laborers as emergency workers–a group whose visas are still being processed. “Empty shelves can be frightening,” he says. “But empty fields and barns would be devastating.” (3,4)
